Data from Glassnode suggests Bitcoin is currently in the historical bear market to bull market transition period.
Bitcoin Correlation Between Price And Supply In Profit Has Recently Been Below 0.75
As per a recent report by Glassnode, the BTC correlation between the price and the supply in profit generally observes multiple drops below 0.75 during transitional periods.
The “supply in profit” is an indicator that measures the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply that’s holding some profit right now.
The metric works by looking at the on-chain history of each coin to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous selling price is less than the current BTC value for any coin, then that particular coin has some unrealized profits at the moment.
The correlation between the crypto’s price and its supply in profit tells us whether the two metrics have been moving in the same direction or not.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin correlation over the history of the crypto:
The value of the metric has been low multiple times in recent days | Source: Glassnode's Market Pulse
Whenever the correlation is positive, it means the price and the supply in profit are both moving in the same direction. On the other hand, negative values imply they are going opposite ways.
As you can see in the above graph, Bitcoin has historically had values above 0.9 for a majority of the time during each of the previous price cycles.
However, during periods of transition between bull markets and bear markets (as well as vice versa), the indicator usually observes multiple drops below 0.75.
According to the report, these deviations occur in the case of bear to bull transitions because at late bear market stages, sellers turn exhausted while the remaining investors become reluctant to move their funds out of frustration, thus decreasing the correlation between price and supply in profit.
And during the opposite transitions, the supply in profit generally surges to almost 100% (as the price rises to a new ATH), thus diminishing any correlation with the price.
Recently, the indicator has observed multiple plunges below the 0.75 threshold, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently in the historical bear to bull transition zone.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.1k, down 4% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 10% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the BTC price over the last five days.
Looks like the value of the crypto hasn't shown much movement in the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com